AFL Preview Round 7: Part 1

ROUND 7 PREVIEW:

Apart from the Crows beating the Swans in Sydney, last week’s tipping and form went pretty much to the normal with the favourites winning. West Coast remains undefeated while as mentioned before Sydney lost their first game of the season against a Taylor Walker and Patrick Dangerfield inspired Adelaide Crows. At the other end of the table GWS, Melbourne and Gold Coast remain winless but that will change this week with the two new clubs set to face each other. In other results, Port Adelaide was thrashed by Richmond who recorded their second victory of the season, while Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong all recorded comfortable victories. This week sees some interesting clashes which could test a lot of tippers. Here’s where I come in. Here are my thoughts on the upcoming round starting with Friday night’s clash between Melbourne and Hawthorn.

First things first though, let’s look at my results from last week.
In regards to tipping, I got a perfect round with 9 out of 9. In regards to the margin I managed to get 3 correct with the Carlton, Crows and West Coast all winning in the margins mentioned by me last week.

SO HERE ARE THE STATS
TIPPING:
43/54 = 79.6%
MARGINS:
6/18 = 33%

MELBOURNE v HAWTHORN
FORM:
LAST 5:

MELBOURNE: 0-6 (17th)
LOSS v West Coast 58-166
LOSS v Richmond 74-133
LOSS v Western Bulldogs 67-88
LOSS v St Kilda 66-84
LOSS v Geelong 76-119

HAWTHORN: 3-3 (11th)
LOSS v Geelong 90-92
WON v Adelaide 140-82
LOSS v West Coast 46-51
LOSS v Sydney 69-106
WON v St Kilda 123-88

LAST 5 AGAINST EACH OTHER:
24/7/2011 Hawthorn 20.12.132 d Melbourne 12.6.78
3/4/2011 Hawthorn 16.26.122 d Melbourne 12.5.77
15/8/2010 Hawthorn 15.9.99 d Melbourne 12.6.78
27/3/2010 Hawthorn 17.15.117 d Melbourne 8.13.61
24/5/2009 Hawthorn 17.12.114 d Melbourne 13.14.92

Melbourne remains winless this season after losing their 6th game in a row against last year’s premier’s Geelong. Hawthorn meanwhile got their season back on track with a comfortable win over St Kilda. In recent form between the two teams, Hawthorn has had the dominance. They have won the last five matches against the Demons and Melbourne last defeated the Hawks in 2006. If Melbourne are to defeat the Hawks under lights at the G, the will need to shut down Cyril Rioli and Lance Franklin. Last week both combined to kick 11 goals between them with Cyril kicking 6 goals in a brilliant performance. If you add the 2 goals by Roughead in that game, all three kicked over 70 per cent of the goals. If Melbourne can shut down these three players then they certainly have a chance of beating the Hawks. Jack Grimes, James Frawley and Jared Rivers will be the key three with the responsibility to shut down these players.

Tip:
With Hawthorn’s dominance recently over Melbourne and the Demons poor start to the season, it all points to one winner in this clash. Hawthorn will win this match and should win very comfortably. Expect Franklin and Roughead to dominate against their Demons opponents and kick plenty of goals between them.
Hawthorn 40-60

ADELAIDE V GEELONG
FORM:
LAST 5:

ADELAIDE: 5-1 (5th)
WON v Western Bulldogs 82-64
LOSS v Hawthorn 84-140
WON v GWS 96-50
WON v Port Adelaide 110-91
WON v Sydney 99-94

GEELONG: 4-2 (6th)
WON v Hawthorn 92-90
LOSS v North Melbourne 131-114
WON v Richmond 75-65
WON v Brisbane 79-41
WON v Melbourne 119-76

LAST 5 AGAINST EACH OTHER:
14/8/2011 Geelong 14.12.96 d Adelaide 12.13.85
26/6/2011 Geelong 19.11.125 d Adelaide 10.13.73
16/7/2010 Adelaide 11.8.74 d Geelong 9.9.63
1/8/2009 Geelong 14.9.93 d Adelaide 13.13.91
18/4/2009 Geelong 21.8.134 d Adelaide 13.8.86

Adelaide last week surprised many by defeating Sydney in Sydney to break their undefeated start to the season. Geelong on the other side also won comfortably against Melbourne and move to 4 wins and 2 losses for the season. Surprisingly Geelong is favourites for this clash despite being lower on the ladder than Adelaide and away from home for this clash. Despite this they have a fantastic record against the Crows winning 4 out of the last 5 matches. Personally you can’t take too much out of this as Adelaide was at the bottom of the ladder and Geelong was at the top. For me the key battle is in two areas, the midfield and Adelaide’s forward line. In 6 matches so far, Adelaide’s has won each contest for contested possession. If it wins this week against Geelong then it will go close to beating the Cats. The other key in the midfield is shutting down Patrick Dangerfield. In the last two weeks he has been the match winner for the Crows. Sydney shut down Dangerfield for one quarter last week which Sydney won comfortably and if Geelong can do that, then they will be close to winning the contest. Finally the Adelaide forward line battle will be key to the outcome of this match. If Matthew Scarlett and Tom Lonergan can shut down Taylor Walker and Kurt Tippett then Geelong will win the game. However if one kicks a bag full of goals then the Crows will get on top and win.

TIP:
The Crows really impressed me last week against the Swans and I think they have what it takes to defeat Geelong at home this weekend. I personally think they can win the midfield battle and the forward line battle which will give them the win but only just.

Adelaide 1-20

GWS v Gold Coast
FORM:
LAST 5:

GOLD COAST: 0-6 (16th)
LOSS v St Kilda 47-139
LOSS v Essendon 88-105
LOSS v Brisbane 46-111
LOSS v North Melbourne 127-93
LOSS v Fremantle 87-94

GWS: 0-6 (18th)
LOSS v North Melbourne 54-183
LOSS v West Coast 69-150
LOSS v Adelaide 50-96
LOSS v Western Bulldogs 62-104
LOSS v Carlton 43-110

FIRST MATCH-UP BETWEEN TWO TEAMS

The first battle between the two new teams is here and it shaped up to be a brilliant match between the two. Gold Coast despite losing all of their matches has played really well over the last two weeks and was very unlucky to lose to Fremantle last week. They have done this without their best two players in Rischitelli and Ablett. GWS have also improved since their opening couple of games but similar to Gold Coast they have also lost all of their games. With both Ablett and Rischitelli back for the Suns, the key to this game is the midfield. If Gold Coast wins the battle then they will comfortably win the match. For GWS they need to shut both Ablett and Rischitelli but they also need to shut down Harley Bennell and Karmichael Hunt in order to win the match.

TIP:
If Ablett and Rischitelli were both out of the match, then GWS would be a very big chance to win the game. However with Gold Coast’s recent form and the addition of their key two players, Gold Coast should win this game to record their first win for the season.
Gold Coast 20-40

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